Further Suicidal Behaviour: The Development and Validation of Predictive Scales

¹ M.R.C. Unit for Epidemiological Studies in Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry, Morningside Park, Edinburgh, 10
² School of Studies in Applied Social Studies, University of Bradford, Bradford 7

1. Data collected between June 1962 and June 1963 on 511 patients admitted to hospital after a suicide attempt were used to construct scales which discriminated between patients who were readmitted or who commited suicide within three years of their key admission (repeaters) and the remainder of the group.

2 Twenty-five per cent of the original group were repeaters; 3.3 per cent committed suicide within the three-year period.

3. Predictive scales were constructed separately for each sex, one point being allocated for each unfavourable item present. The scale for men consisted of three items: alcoholism, alcohol at time of suicidal act, violence. The female scale consisted of seven items: (1) previous attempted suicide (2) previous psychiatric treatment (3) psychopathy (4) drug addiction (5) dwelling mobility (6) father absent when patient under 10 years (7) mother absent when patient under 10 years.

4. The scores were grouped in low, medium and high risk categories. Males had a probability of repetition of 13 per cent in the low risk group, 32 per cent (medium risk), 57 per cent (high risk). The probabilities for women were 8 per cent (low risk), 31 per cent (medium risk), 56 per cent (high risk).

5. The scales were also found to distinguish low, medium and high risk groups over a period of one calendar year.

6. Validation of the scales was carried out on patients admitted after a suicidal attempt in 1967 and followed up for one calendar year. The female scale was shown to be predictive for 1967 patients; the scale for men was not valid at this later date.

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