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Seasonal variation in suicides: diminished or vanished

Experience from England and Wales, 1982-1996

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

ANNE CHAO, PhD

Institute of Statistics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan

CALVIN CHIU, MSc

Department of Statistics, Harvard University, MA, USA

Correspondence: Paul Yip, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong

Declaration of interest None.

Background Seasonal variation in suicidal death has been observed in many countries. In particular, a cyclic variation was found for both men and women in England and Wales in the 1960s and 1970s. Men showed a single 12-month cycle whereas women showed two cycles.

Aims To re-examine the seasonal variation in suicides in England and Wales for the period 1982-1996.

Method A harmonic analysis was used to detect the seasonality of the suicide data.

Results The seasonal effect on suicide is greatly diminished in England and Wales. This is shown by the reduced amplitude and smaller proportion of variance accounted for by the season.

Conclusions The seasonal effect on suicide has either diminished or vanished.

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