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The British Journal of Psychiatry (2005) 187: s4-s7
© 2005 The Royal College of Psychiatrists

Predictors of schizophrenia

Evidence from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort and other sources*

MATTI ISOHANNI, MD, PhD, ERIKA LAURONEN, MD, KRISTIINA MOILANEN, MD, IRENE ISOHANNI, PhD, LIISA KEMPPAINEN, MD, PhD, HANNU KOPONEN, MD, PhD, JOUKO MIETTUNEN, PhD, PIRJO MÄKI, MD, PhD, SAMI RÄSÄNEN, MD, PhD, JUHA VEIJOLA, MD, PhD, PEKKA TIENARI, MD, PhD and KARL-ERIK WAHLBERG, PhD

Department of Psychiatry, University of Oulu, Finland

GRAHAM K. MURRAY, MRCPsych

Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, UK

Correspondence: Dr Matti Isohannni, Department of Psychiatry, University of Oulu, PO Box 5000, Finland. E-mail: matti.isohanni{at}oulu.fi

Declaration of interest The study was funded by special grants from the Finnish Academy, Sigrid Juselius Foundation, the Signe and Ane Gyllenberg Foundation, the Jalmari and Rauha Ahokas Foundation, and Stanley Medical Research Institute.

* Paper presented at the Third International Early Psychosis Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, September 2002.

Background Subtle motor, emotional, cognitive and behavioural abnormalities are often present in apparently healthy individuals who later develop schizophrenia, suggesting that some aspects of causation are established before overt psychosis.

Aims To outline the development of schizophrenia.

Method We drew on evidence from The Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort supplemented by selected findings from other relevant literature.

Results The main known risk factors in development of schizophrenia are genetic causes, pregnancy and delivery complications, slow neuromotor development, and deviant cognitive and academic performance. However, their effect size and predictive power are small.

Conclusions No powerful risk factor, premorbid sign or risk indicator has been identified that is useful for the prediction of schizophrenia in the general population.




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