The British Journal of Psychiatry (2007) 190: 42-48. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.106.022871
© 2007 The Royal College of Psychiatrists
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Psychiatric and psychosocial predictors of substance use disorders among adolescents

Longitudinal study*

SUSAN S. F. GAU, MD, PhD

Department of Psychiatry, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei

MIAN-YOON CHONG, FRCPsych

Department of Psychiatry, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung

PINCHENG YANG, MD and CHENG-FANG YEN, MD, PhD

Department of Psychiatry, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

KUNG-YEE LIANG, PhD

Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan and Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, USA

ANDREW T. A. CHENG, FRCPsych

Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.

Correspondence: Professor Andrew T. A. Cheng, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Fax: +88 62 2782 3047; email: bmandrew{at}gate.sinica.edu.tw

Declaration of interest None. Funding detailed in Acknowledgements.

* Presented in part at the Tenth International Congress of the International Federation of Psychiatric Epidemiology, Bristol, UK, 10–13 September, 2004.

Background Few studies have prospectively examined psychosocial and psychiatric predictors of adolescent substance use disorders simultaneously.

Aims To identify psychosocial and psychiatric predictors of substance use disorders in adolescence.

Method School children aged 12 years (s.d.=0.3) free from any substance use disorder at grade 7 (n=428) were assessed in three consecutive years, using a standardised psychiatric interview. Their baseline psychosocial information was also collected. The outcome was the onset age of a substance use disorder. The Cox regression model was used for data analysis.

Results The most significant predictive factors for adolescent substance use disorder included male gender, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder and sibling use of tobacco. Three protective factors against such morbidity included living in a household withtwo parents, a good academic grade atgrade 7 and objection to the use of substances.

Conclusions Early intervention for disruptive behaviour disorders and specific psychosocial risk factors might prevent substance use disorders in early adolescence.


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