The British Journal of Psychiatry (2000) 177: 292-302
© 2000 The Royal College of Psychiatrists
Predictive value of pharmacological activity for the relative efficacy of antidepressant drugs
Meta-regression analysis
NICK FREEMANTLE, MA
Medicines Evaluation Group, Centre for Health Economics, University of
York
I. M. ANDERSON, MD
University of Manchester, Department of Psychiatry
P. YOUNG, PhD
Department of Health Science & Clinical Evaluation, University of
York
Correspondence: Nick Freemantle, Reader in Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Medicines
Evaluation Group, Centre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington,
York YO10 5DD, UK. Tel: 01904 434568; fax: 01904 433640; e-mail:
meg{at}york.ac.uk
Declaration of interest Study sponsored by an unrestricted grant
from Wyeth Laboratories. N.F. has previously received funding from the
Department of Health to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness
of antidepressants. I.M.A. has received research funding and honoraria from a
number of pharmaceutical companies.

ABSTRACT
Background There is uncertainty about the contribution of specific
pharmacological properties to the efficacy of antidepressants.
Aims To assess whether specific pharmacological characteristics of
alternative antidepressants resulted in altered efficacy compared to that of
selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the treatment of major
depression.
Method Meta-regression analysis of randomised trials that compare
treatment with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and an alternative
antidepressant.
Results One-hundred-and-five randomised trials were included. None
of the factors identified a priori predicted a statistically
significant improvement in outcome across the trials.
Conclusions This analysis does not provide evidence that
antidepressants acting at more than one pharmacological site differ in
efficacy from drugs selective for serotonin reuptake in the treatment of major
depression.

INTRODUCTION
About two-thirds of patients with a depressive disorder respond
to
antidepressant drugs. This proportion was described in the
1950s at the time
it was discovered that monoamine oxidase
inhibitors (MAOIs) and imipramine had
antidepressant properties
(
Healy,
1997). In the four decades since, there has been enormous
progress
in neuroscience. The pharmacology of the first antidepressants
is now known in
greater detail and we have seen increasing
development of new antidepressants
with specific, designed
pharmacological properties. In spite of these
advances, there
has been no convincing demonstration that an antidepressant
has any greater efficacy than the first serendipitously discovered
drugs,
although progress has been made in improving side-effects
and safety. However,
for over a decade it has been recognised
that combinations of drugs may be
more effective than a single
drug: the best combination established is the
augmentation
of antidepressants with lithium
(
Austin et al,
1991). This
suggests that it should be possible to design a drug
with more
than one pharmacological action, which would be more effective
than
the selective, single-action drugs. Clinical belief in
the greater
effectiveness of clomipramine, and recent claims
that some drugs, such as
venlafaxine (
Clerc et al,
1994),
may be more effective than the selective serotonin reuptake
inhibitor (SSRI) fluoxetine, have raised the issue of whether
a joint action
in inhibiting the reuptake of both 5-hydroxytryptamine
(serotonin, 5-HT) and
noradrenaline may confer added benefit.
This has also been suggested by open
studies of combined treatment
with an SSRI and a tricyclic antidepressant
(TCA) (
Nelson et al,
1991). Systematic reviews, using different methodologies,
seeking
to find out whether some antidepressants may be more
effective than SSRIs,
have reached differing conclusions. One
overview of the effectiveness of
various antidepressant drugs
found statistical heterogeneity (systematic
differences between
studies) in treatment effects estimated in different
studies,
but not significant benefit for any one agent compared with
others
(
Geddes et al,
2000). Other systematic reviews have
suggested that SSRIs may be
less effective than amitriptyline
(
Anderson, 2000), TCAs (in
in-patients) (
Anderson, 1998)
and
venlafaxine (
Rudolph et al,
1998).
One way to address these discrepancies is to ask whether particular
pharmacological properties or their combination might increase efficacy. We
used an extension of traditional meta-analytic methods - meta-regression -
which provides a robust new way of exploring the factors which could explain
differences between treatments. In addition, other potentially confounding
factors which may affect relative efficacy were investigated.

METHOD
Objective
Our primary objective was to examine the predictive value of
different
pharmacological action for antidepressant drugs,
singly and in combination, on
outcome. The factors studied
were noradrenaline reuptake inhibition, serotonin
(5-HT) reuptake
inhibition and 5-HT
2 receptor antagonism. They were
chosen
because they have all, independently, been associated with
antidepressant activity in specific drugs.
The important structural factors examined were: treatment setting
(inpatient v. out-patient or family practice); dose of comparator
(high v. low dose, based on the British National Formulary
(British Medical Association & Royal
Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain, 1997), with a daily dose
of < 100 mg of most comparators defined as a low dose, apart from 75 mg for
nortriptyline and venlafaxine, 45 mg for mianserin, 150 mg for trazodone, 200
mg for nefazodone); method of analysis (last observation carried forward
v. end-point analysis); age of patients (defined as over 65 or of
mixed age); measurement scale used (either Hamilton Rating Scale for
Depression (Hamilton, 1960) or alternative scale); sponsor of the trial (where not stated, taken as SSRIs
in comparisons with TCAs and older antidepressants, and the comparator in
studies against drugs marketed since SSRIs).
Data-set and included trials
We analysed all available double-blind randomised trials which compared
treatment of depression with an SSRI and with an alternative antidepressant
drug that had a primary effect on 5-HT and/or noradrenaline reuptake and/or
5-HT2 antagonism. This data-set was chosen because it provides a
large group of studies of antidepressants with a well-defined single
pharmacological action (5-HT reuptake inhibition). Eligible trials had to
include adult or elderly patients with a major depressive episode for which
relevant data were available. As SSRIs are a relatively homogeneous group in
terms of pharmacological action, the planned comparisons enabled us to examine
the relative efficacy of other antidepressants with different single and
combined sites of action against a common standard. Given the increasing
pre-eminence of SSRIs in first-line treatment of depressive illness, this is
also relevant to current practice.
Classification of drugs
Pharmacological classification of drugs was undertaken using the best
available evidence. There are considerable difficulties in doing this,
including availability of data in humans (species differences may be
important), extrapolation from binding or in vitro data to activity
in vivo (including the threshold at which an action becomes
important) and the effect of metabolites. The classification used is described
in Table 1 and is based, as far
as possible, on recently available human binding data. Some generally accepted
assumptions appeared less than well founded, from the available data, and
there was uncertainty about the classification of some drugs. With regard to
5-HT reuptake inhibition, some drugs traditionally regarded, on the basis of
studies in rats, as having minimal activity (especially dothiepin, but also
nortriptyline and desipramine) may in fact have a significant degree of
affinity for the human 5-HT transporter
(Tatsumi et al,
1997). In the case of desipramine and nortriptyline, dynamic
studies in transfected cells or human platelets found low activity
(Lingjaerde, 1985;
Barker & Blakely, 1995),
but uncertainty remains about dothiepin. Trazodone and nefazodone are
sometimes described as 5-HT reuptake inhibitors, but both animal and human
data suggest low affinity for, and activity at, the 5-HT transporter
(Richelson & Pfenning,
1984; Lingjaerde,
1985; Tatsumi et al,
1997). With regard to noradrenaline reuptake inhibition, the main
uncertainty centred on venlafaxine, marketed as having both 5-HT and
noradrenaline activity. However, the most comprehensive animal and human data
indicate that it has low affinity for the noradrenaline transporter
(Bolden-Watson & Richelson,
1993; Tatsumi et al,
1997) and human functional data suggest that inhibition of
noradrenaline reuptake only occurs at higher doses
(Abdelmawla et al,
1999). Concerning antagonism of human 5-HT2 receptors,
there is some uncertainty about the activity of clomipramine, which shows
relatively low binding in animal studies
(Pälvimäki
et al, 1996), higher affinity in the human brain
(Wander et al,
1986), but intermediate binding and activity in platelets
(Ohsuka et al,
1995), raising uncertainty as to its effect in vivo,
particularly at lower doses. The implication of this uncertainty was assessed
in each case through a sensitivity analysis in which the initial
classification excluded borderline properties, but separate analyses were
performed in which they were included.
Search strategy
We undertook an optimally sensitive electronic search for randomised trials
meeting our entry criteria. We searched Medline (1966-1997 via OVID) and
EMBASE (1974-1997 via DIALOG) and reviewed the reference list of each
identified study. Existing bibliographies and reviews for relevant studies
were also examined.
Data abstraction
For each study located, data on main outcome were abstracted. The Hamilton
Depression Rating Scale (Hamilton,
1960) was the preferred outcome scale, but where this was not
available the Montgomery-
sberg Depression
Rating Scale (Montgomery &
sberg, 1979), or the Clinical
Global Impression Scale (Guy,
1976) were abstracted. Where data were not available in published
reports, we routinely contacted the principal author and, where necessary, the
sponsor of the study, to request data.
Data synthesis
Standardised effect sizes for each arm of included trials were estimated
from the data, using the final rating scale score and the pooled estimate of
study variance as described by Hedges & Olkin
(1985). The use of an effect
size has the advantage of standardising the scores from different studies,
which may adopt differing approaches to assessing treatment effect, on a
common and thus comparable scale.
We used a meta-regression technique to examine the extent to which the
value of individual factors such as specific pharmacological properties
predicted a positive outcome in the trials. We have taken a similar approach
in other meta-regression analyses (Davis
et al, 1999;
Freemantle et al,
1999). BUGS software, described by Smith et al
(1995), was used to specify
the statistical model that attempted to explain variation in the results of
different studies on the basis of a range of potentially important factors.
This approach is analogous to standard regression analysis, but takes into
account the fact that study results are estimated with measurement
error (described by the confidence intervals), rather than known. The
covariate terms for each factor applied to the model are multipliers which
describe the positive or negative impact of different factors on the observed
results. Where the estimated effect of a factor is not significantly different
from zero, it does not contribute to an understanding of the differences in
observed results, and so is not considered further in the analysis.
The statistical methods applied in this analysis have been developed
relatively recently and are the subject of considerable interest. Further
details of the general approach are available in the excellent introductory
text by Gilks et al
(1996) and details of the
software are available from http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/.

RESULTS
In total, 105 trials comparing SSRIs with alternative antidepressant
drugs
were included. These trials looked at 11 537 patients
- 5937 treated with an
SSRI contrasted with 5600 treated with
an alternative antidepressant drug. The
most commonly used
SSRI was fluoxetine, while the most commonly used
alternative
was amitriptyline. Trials of five SSRIs and 12 comparator drugs
were identified. The major characteristics of each trial included
are
described in
Table 2.
The predictive value of each factor was assessed in turn. None of the
factors achieved a statistically significant predictive effect upon outcome
and thus all coefficients reflect the predictive value of a factor alone in
the model. As expected, 5-HT reuptake inhibition on its own did not predict
any difference in efficacy; the coefficient was - 0.003 (95% CI - 0.064 to
0.048). For the presence of activity on noradrenaline reuptake, the
coefficient was 0.006 (95% CI -0.042 to 0.082). The coefficients examining the
predictive value of 5HT2 antagonism did not predict the outcome in
the included trials (see Table
3 and Fig. 1).
We also examined the predictive value of the presence of dual action (5-HT
and noradrenaline reuptake inhibition) and triple action (dual action plus
5-HT2 antagonism) on the model. Neither predicted an increase in
effectiveness.
None of the identified structural factors that may have confounded the
results of the analyses had statistically significant predictive value and,
perhaps surprisingly, the dose of the comparator had no influence, with the
results being particularly precise (very narrow confidence interval). The most
important structural predictor of outcome was trial sponsorship, which
demonstrated a trend towards increased efficacy of the sponsor's drug,
although this did not reach statistical significance.

DISCUSSION
We have shown that, in this data-set, there is no evidence to
support the
increased efficacy of specific combinations of
actions at 5-HT and
noradrenaline transporter and 5-HT
2 receptor
sites, compared to a
single action in inhibiting the reuptake
of 5-HT. The results of our review
suggest that great caution
needs to be taken in ascribing any possible
efficacy advantages
of particular antidepressants over SSRIs to acute
pharmacological
properties.
Scope
We did not examine the efficacy of MAOIs, moclobemide or mirtazapine
because their actions to increase 5-HT and noradrenaline function, while
presynaptic, cannot be compared directly with single or dual action reuptake
inhibition. Neither did we examine effects at other receptors, based on the
principle of limiting the analysis to factors for which there is evidence of
involvement in antidepressant efficacy. Our results indicate that the argument
that a dual action (in inhibiting 5-HT and noradrenaline reuptake) could
account for the results of selected trials in which superior efficacy is shown
by one drug over another should be accepted with caution, and emphasise the
difficulty in establishing the superiority of one antidepressant over another
in studies such as these. The term dual action has become a
marketing concept for a number of antidepressants, and this study raises the
question as to whether it has a legitimate scientific basis, in considering
mechanisms behind antidepressant efficacy.
The role of 5-HT2 receptor antagonism in antidepressant action
is unclear, but is suggested because it is the principal pharmacological
property of the antidepressants trazodone and nefazodone. The picture is
further complicated by the differentiation of this receptor into
5-HT2A and 5-HT2C subtypes. Our analysis is based on
antagonism of the 5-HT2A subtype, and there is a lack of good data
on the binding of antidepressants to the human 5-HT2C receptor.
Animal studies suggest that most, but not all, antidepressants bind with
similar affinity to the two subtypes
(Pälvimäki
et al, 1996). However, this analysis has not made a
specific examination of the role of 5-HT2C receptor antagonism.
Issues in the analysis of the data
Our findings show that appropriate meta-regression techniques can be useful
in examining the importance of different factors across a range of trials
examining a common goal, but differing in potentially important
characteristics. Standard ordinary least-squares regression is inadequate in
an analysis such as this, as the method assumes that the observed outcomes in
the trials (the estimate of the size of effect) are the true outcomes. It is
important to recognise that the outcomes in clinical trials involve
considerable uncertainty, and that standard statistical techniques would fail
to include an adequate estimate of measurement error.
Each of the factors was entered individually in the analysis, and only if a
significant predictive effect had been found would its influence on other
factors have been examined. A potential limitation of our study is that
factors without a uniform influence on outcome could have been missed. For
instance, the effect of in-patient treatment setting could be to favour one
group of comparators but disadvantage others, giving no overall effect.
Addressing this type of limitation requires strong a priori
hypotheses, such as that for the category of dual action, and
goes beyond this analysis.
The pharmacological classification of antidepressants we used needs
comment. A difficulty permeating our analysis, and relatively unrecognised, is
how limited our knowledge of even the acute pharmacology of antidepressants
remains. Commonly held views about the pharmacology of antidepressants, at
least in vivo, and in humans, probably go beyond the evidence. We are
uncertain about whether many of the putative pharmacological properties of
drugs are translated into effects in the human brain for many reasons,
including continuing advances in our understanding of how neurotransmission
may be modified, the lack of true selectivity of drugs (including the action
of metabolites), lack of knowledge of the pharmacology of drugs in humans as
opposed to other animals, and ignorance about neuronal concentrations of drugs
and their metabolites at doses employed clinically. This suggests that the
scientific question of whether particular putative actions or combinations of
putative actions of drugs may relate to efficacy still awaits better
understanding of what the actions really are. We have tried to use the best
data available, including those obtained in experiments with human tissues,
but these are relatively limited. Uncertainties about the classification of
some drugs are inevitable, and for some there is evidence of a dose
relationship across the doses used in the studies, which could not easily be
accounted for in the analysis (for example, noradrenaline reuptake inhibition
occurring only at a higher venlafaxine dose). A final important point is the
recognition that the acute effects of antidepressants do not directly account
for antidepressant action, which is believed to be due to secondary changes
arising as a consequence of the primary effects. The acute pharmacology, even
if it can be known, therefore stands as a crude proxy for as yet unknown
changes that are crucial for antidepressant action. It is quite possible that
it is not simply the presence or absence of an acute pharmacological effect
but the balance between different ones that is important in determining later
changes and, finally, response to antidepressants.
Quality of data
Our data-set is both large and systematically assembled, which means that
the power to detect significant effects is high and that bias is minimised,
although in interpreting our results it is important to recognise the
limitations inherent in the data. The quality of the trials was variable and
likely to have added noise to the results. In addition, there is
uncertainty about optimum doses for the comparators in relation to SSRIs,
which will influence the analysis of dose; this may be particularly true for
the comparator drugs in which there is uncertainty about pharmacological
activity at specific sites, as discussed above. In our model there was strong
evidence that the dose of comparator antidepressant had no effect on the
relative effectiveness compared with that of an SSRI. Hence we believe it is
unlikely that a major effect attributable to the chosen pharmacological
actions, singly or in combination, has been obscured in the data, although we
cannot exclude an effect of dose for some individual drugs or an interaction
between factors. For example, as discussed above, drugs such as venlafaxine
may cross from single to dual reuptake inhibition with increasing dose.
Most studies involved TCAs, and the lack of effect of dose on efficacy
potentially adds to the debate about the supposed dangers of
subtherapeutic prescribing of TCAs, which has been seen as a
factor influencing choice between antidepressants
(Donaghue & Tylee, 1996).
In clinical practice, it is not uncommon to see individual patients, often
with more severe illness, whose depression only responds to higher doses of
TCAs. The evidence that this is generally true is extremely limited
(Blashki et al,
1971; Thompson &
Thompson, 1989) and should not be accepted uncritically. The
trials included in this analysis were not designed to look at the effect of
dose, and differed as to whether a fixed or variable dose was employed.
Nevertheless, not only was no effect of dose on relative efficacy detected,
but the precision of the estimate was extremely high, making it very unlikely
that a true effect was obscured, taking the cut-off between high and low dose
that we employed. As nearly all low-dose studies used TCA doses
of 75 mg or above, this suggests that one needs to keep an open mind about
whether the minimum therapeutic dose of TCAs may be 75 mg or below in
populations such as these.

Clinical Implications and Limitations
CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS
- Currently, there is uncertainty about whether some antidepressants display
superior efficacy.
- In our present state of knowledge of the pharmacology of individual drugs,
there does not seem to be a simple relationship between acute pharmacological
properties and efficacy.
- When choosing antidepressants on the basis of efficacy, clinicians should
consider the properties of individual drugs rather than make assumptions about
efficacy based on their acute pharmacological actions. Safety, tolerability
and patients' preference are likely to be more important for most
patients.
LIMITATIONS
- Differences in the reporting of outcomes between studies require
standardisation of many outcomes, resulting in a reduction in interpretation
of the practical importance of the results.
- Data on the relative effectiveness of different antidepressants remain
limited for individual agents.
- Our knowledge of the acute pharmacology of individual antidepressants in
humans is limited; this is even more true of the secondary effects believed to
underlie the antidepressant action.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We are grateful to Wyeth UK for supporting this research, and
to those
investigators and sponsors who provided unpublished
data. The views expressed
are those of the investigators and
not necessarily those of the sponsor. We
are grateful also
to Anne Burton, for her assistance in retrieving relevant
studies
and her persistent attempts to locate unpublished data.

APPENDIX REPORTS OF TRIALS INCLUDED IN THE META-ANALYSIS
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(1983) Clinical trials of fluvoxamine vs chlorimipramine with
single and three times daily dosing. British Journal of Clinical
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(1985) Citalopram versus mianserin: a controlled,
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British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology,
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(1996) Fluvoxamine versus imipramine and placebo: a
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119-127.[CrossRef][Medline]
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(1989) Fluoxetine versus trazodone in depressed geriatric
patients. Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and
Neurology, 2,
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57(1):
161 - 178.
[Abstract]
[Full Text]
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