Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-dfsvx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T13:32:33.644Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Predicting Offender-Patients' Reconvictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2018

Clive Payne ,
Sarah McCabe  and
Nigel Walker
Clive Payne
Affiliation:
Research Services Unit, Nuffield College, Oxford, OX1 1NF
Sarah McCabe
Affiliation:
Oxford University Penal Research Unit, St. Cross Building, Manor Road, Oxford
Nigel Walker
Affiliation:
7 West Road, Cambridge, CB3 9DT
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In 1963–4 the Oxford University Penal Research Unit managed to collect information about 90 per cent of the offender-patients who were admitted to N.H.S. and Special Hospitals under hospital orders made by criminal courts: this cohort has been described in Crime and Insanity, Vol. II, by Walker and McCabe (1973). One of the by-products of the follow-up of these offender-patients was a rough and ready scoring system for predicting reconvictions (within a two-year follow-up) of 456 offender-patients who were allowed to leave hospital within a year of admission. A prediction system can be used to assist human decision-making (though it should not be a substitute for it)∗ and can also be used to assess the efficacy of measures—such as after-care—by seeing whether individuals with equal predicted reconviction-rates do better with than without the measure (Mannheim and Wilkins, 1955).

Type
Research Article
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 125 , Issue 584 , July 1974 , pp. 60 - 64
Copyright
Copyright © Royal College of Psychiatrists, 1974 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Cox, D. R. (1970) The Analysis of Binary Data. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
Dyke, G. & Patterson, H. (1952) Analysis of factorial arrangements when the data are proportions. Biometrica, 8, 1–12.Google Scholar
Goodman, L. A. (1972) A modified multiple regression approach to the analysis of dichotomous variables. American Sociological Review, 37, 28–66.Google Scholar
Simon, F. H. (1971) Prediction Methods in Criminology. London: H.M.S.O. Google Scholar
Theil, H. (1970) On the estimation of relationships involving qualitative variables. American Journal of Sociology, 76, 103–154.Google Scholar
Mannheim, H. & Wilkins, L. T. (1955) Prediction Methods in relation to Borstal Training. London: H.M.S.O. Google Scholar
Walker, N. D. (1971) Crimes, Courts and Figures. Penguin.Google Scholar
Walker, N. D. & McCabe, S. F. (1973) Crime and Insanity in England, Vol. II. Edinburgh University Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

eLetters

No eLetters have been published for this article.